How civil wars and other internal conflicts arise
political systems that exclude certain groups can fuel tensions and lead to violent mobilization, expert says
- Image Chris Hartlove
Key Takeaways
- Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, and other countries are facing domestic conflicts.
- Peter Lewis, a SAIS professor, argued the violence is brought on by “exclusionary bargains,” which marginalize certain demographic groups.
- The ripple effects of internal conflicts extend beyond a nation’s borders, according to Dipali Mukhopadhyay, an associate professor at SAIS.
Nearly 56,000 Nigerians were killed in violent conflicts and another 21,000 abducted between 2019 and 2023, according to a recent report by The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa. An Amnesty International report found there have been at least 555 victims of mob violence in Nigeria.
For Peter Lewis, chair of African Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, violence like what’s occurring in Nigeria is a natural outcome of what he calls “exclusionary bargains,” or political systems that leave certain groups out of power. His research has found those “exclusionary political bargains” can fuel political tensions and violent mobilization by marginalized groups. Nigeria, for example, faces a growing crisis of disorder, marked by insurgencies, communal violence, and criminality.
“In a context similar to Nigeria, a low-income or lower middle-income country, the problems of inequality and poverty, communal polarization, and weak institutions leave openings for violent mobilization and have yielded this outcome,” Lewis said.
The professor’s comments came at a recent convening held at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg Center about domestic conflict, skirmishes that take place within a country’s borders.
Lewis added that building resiliency and functioning governments requires inclusive leadership. Often, he said, politicians make deals to get through elections that can lead to “predatory political environments” and create the conditions for violence.
Countering that requires “new approaches toward inclusion, toward opening up economic growth, and toward engaging in conflict,” he said.
South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, among others, are currently experiencing internal conflict. But Dipali Mukhopadhyay, an associate professor at SAIS, argues the effect of this violence goes far beyond their borders.
“The very notion of a crisis being domestic in the context of a civil war, I think, is probably not an accurate one,” Mukhopadhyay said. “Most civil wars are international. They become international very quickly. Most domestic crises probably have an international dimension as well.”
She added that distinctions between wartime and peacetime, and order and disorder, are often artificial and far more fluid than we like to think.